Saturday, October 29, 2011

My Top 50: 20 - 16

ESPN, SLAM and a variety of basketball media outlets have been slowly unveiling their lists of the top current basketball players. The theory is a countdown to the start of the 2011/12 NBA season, which was scheduled to start November 1st, but lockout negotiations are ongoing to say the least. ESPN did a top 500 list, and made it interactive over twitter with the hashtag #NBArank, and SLAM's messaging boards have topped 500 comments for the Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose pages.

While these outlets were generating buzz, I was becoming inspired.

Who really was the best?

Everybody has an opinion, so I've gathered some of the best of them and grouped it with other relevant information. Each player is listed with relevant rankings from various trusted basketball outlets, statistical information for the top 5 categories (pts, reb, ast, FG%, FT%) and an indication if they finished in the top 10 in another category like blocks, 3FG%, or turnovers.

I also looked at advanced statistical measures such as PER, Net Production, and Simple Rating which are relatively explained in the links.

For some players, certain ranking systems do not apply, and are simply not listed.

In all, this was an attempt to be unbiased, to gather and reflect on existing sources, and ultimately form an educated opinion that is at once objective, and also completely my own.

SLAM's list is for "projected production in the upcoming '11/12 season," and this means that steady regular season production is a factor. The good teams have always paced themselves, and Kobe could still go for 30, but he knows he doesn't need to. Plus, you're speculating on fantasy and future.

My list is based on right now. If the lockout were to end, and instead of a season all we got was a Finals. Who would you pick to lead your team? Who could have the most impact in just a series, when all the chips are down?

Please engage me on this, I want to hear your thoughts. No list is permanent, and subject to change.

Wed October 26: 50 - 41
50 - Andrew Bogut
49 - Nené
48 - Marc Gasol
47 - Andrew Bynum
46 - Lamar Odom
45 - John Wall
44 - Tyson Chandler
43 - Carlos Boozer
42 - Al Horford
41 - Gerald Wallace
Thurs October 27: 40 - 31
40 - David West
39 - Jason Kidd
38 - Josh Smith
37 - Stephen Curry
36 - Joachim Noah
35 - Eric Gordon
34 - Kevin Garnett
33 - Tim Duncan
32 - Tony Parker
31 - Al Jefferson
Fri October 28: 30 - 21
30 - Ray Allen
29 - Kevin Martin
28 - Tyreke Evans
27 - Andre Iguodala
26 - Rudy Gay
25 - Danny Granger
24 - Monta Ellis
23 - Kevin Love
22 - Joe Johnson
21 - Manu Ginobili
Sat October 29: 20 - 16
Sun October 30: 15 - 11
Mon October 31: 10 - 6
Tues November 1: 5 - 1

20
Zach Randolph
-       ESPN rank 20 (8.12)
-       SLAMonline rank - 19
-       CBS rank 13 (86.87)
-       2k12 rank 23 (83)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -31.4
-       Player Efficiency Rating #13
-       Sports Illustrated #13
-       Eye on Basketball #12
-       20.1 pts, 12.2 reb, 2.2 ast, 50.3 FG%, 75.8 FT%

All of the sudden, Z-Bo is a top 20 player. A consistent 20-10 guy, he played fantastic in last years' playoff run with the Grizzlies. He is so strong down on the low block he can force his way to rebounds. He also shoots high percentages and has the thirteenth-highest PER.
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19
Paul Pierce
-       ESPN rank 21 (8.12)
-       SLAMonline rank - 21
-       CBS rank 20 (83.03)
-       2k12 rank 29 (82)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -30.3
-       Player Efficiency Rating #30
-       Sports Illustrated #15
-       Eye on Basketball #27
-       360special All-Time rank – 50
-       On-Court Team Production #4 (+10.2)
-       Simple Rating – 11.1 (7th)
-       18.9 pts, 5.4 reb, 3.2 ast, 49.7 FG%, 86.0 FT%

Paul Pierce is a clutch performer, and holds the title as LeBron's greatest nemesis, but this doesn't always show up through the regular stat lines.The advanced stats show Pierce has the seventh best simple rating, a combination of personal and team overall production, and when he's on the floor his team produces an average of +10.2 points which ranks him fourth in the NBA. He doesn't have the physical abilities of Durant, LeBron, Dwyane or Dwight, but he has a ring.
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18
Steve Nash
-       ESPN rank 14 (8.33)
-       SLAMonline rank - 20
-       CBS rank 30 (80.31)
-       2k12 rank 19 (84)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -34
-       Player Efficiency Rating #22
-       Sports Illustrated #18
-       Eye on Basketball #20
-       360special All-Time rank – 28
-       Simple Rating – 10.8 (8th)
-       14.7 pts, 3.5 reb, 11.4 ast, 49.2 FG%, 91.2 FT%
-       2010/11 Season 6th Most Turnovers

For the record, I still think Nash is the best *pure point guard in the league. If I want one guy to run my team's offense, it's Nash. There are other players who are better defenders (Rondo), and scorers (Rose) but Nash plays the PG role the way we expect all PGs to play. At 37 years old, he still led the League in assists, and likely has the highest floor awareness in the NBA. His defense has always been suspect, but his 40-50-90 percentages from the floor have always been reliable, and last year he finished with the eighth highest Simple Rating. Should Nash find his way out of Phoenix, he could be higher on this list next year.
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17
Chris Bosh
-       ESPN rank 24 (7.97)
-       SLAMonline rank - 17
-       CBS rank 24 (82.62)
-       2k12 rank 36 (80)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -42.7
-       Player Efficiency Rating #33
-       Sports Illustrated #22
-       Eye on Basketball #23
-       360special All-Time rank – 100
-       On-Court Team Production #3 (+10.5)
-       18.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 1.9 ast, 49.6 FG%, 81.5 FT%

As the third wheel in the Miami triangle, Bosh averaged respectable numbers that would have been closer to his usual 22-10 if he didn't have to share the ball so much. Bosh's production often goes unnoticed, and he is a lightning rod for Heat hate and general criticisms. Advanced stats show that while Bosh is on the floor he improves his team's on-court production by 10.5 points, more than LeBron (9.7) or Wade (9.8) do. Nobody is on Wade and LeBron's level for starpower, and Bosh shouldn't be expected to be so, but he's a talented player that spaces the floor with his jump-shooting ability and provides Miami with an inside weapon. If he grabbed 1.7 more rebounds per game, this discussion would be different.
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16
LaMarcus Aldridge
-       ESPN rank 23 (7.98)
-       SLAMonline rank - 18
-       CBS rank 9 (89.28)
-       2k12 rank 23 (83)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -19.7
-       Player Efficiency Rating #18
-       Sports Illustrated #11
-       Eye on Basketball #13
-       21.8 pts, 8.8 reb, 2.1 ast, 50.0 FG%, 79.1 FT%

LA rose up the charts significantly this past season, posting solid numbers and making an injury-riddled Blazers team relevant. His place above Chris Bosh on this list reflects his current situation, which allows him more freedom to be the face of the franchise, like Bosh had in Toronto. People are so used to valuing his underratedness that they may overrate LA, a strange paradox for sure, but he continues to improve and the future will tell if this ranking was a mistake or an indication of more to come.


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