Monday, October 31, 2011

My Top 50: 10 - 6

ESPN, SLAM and a variety of basketball media outlets have been slowly unveiling their lists of the top current basketball players. The theory is a countdown to the start of the 2011/12 NBA season, which was scheduled to start November 1st, but lockout negotiations are ongoing to say the least. ESPN did a top 500 list, and made it interactive over twitter with the hashtag #NBArank, and SLAM's messaging boards have topped 500 comments for the Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose pages.

While these outlets were generating buzz, I was becoming inspired.

Who really was the best?

Everybody has an opinion, so I've gathered some of the best of them and grouped it with other relevant information. Each player is listed with relevant rankings from various trusted basketball outlets, statistical information for the top 5 categories (pts, reb, ast, FG%, FT%) and an indication if they finished in the top 10 in another category like blocks, 3FG%, or turnovers.

I also looked at advanced statistical measures such as PER, Net Production, and Simple Rating which are relatively explained in the links.

For some players, certain ranking systems do not apply, and are simply not listed.

In all, this was an attempt to be unbiased, to gather and reflect on existing sources, and ultimately form an educated opinion that is at once objective, and also completely my own.

SLAM's list is for "projected production in the upcoming '11/12 season," and this means that steady regular season production is a factor. The good teams have always paced themselves, and Kobe could still go for 30, but he knows he doesn't need to. Plus, you're speculating on fantasy and future.

My list is based on right now. If the lockout were to end, and instead of a season all we got was a Finals. Who would you pick to lead your team? Who could have the most impact in just a series, when all the chips are down?

Please engage me on this, I want to hear your thoughts. No list is permanent, and subject to change.

Wed October 26: 50 - 41
50 - Andrew Bogut
49 - Nené
48 - Marc Gasol
47 - Andrew Bynum
46 - Lamar Odom
45 - John Wall
44 - Tyson Chandler
43 - Carlos Boozer
42 - Al Horford
41 - Gerald Wallace
Thurs October 27: 40 - 31
40 - David West
39 - Jason Kidd
38 - Josh Smith
37 - Stephen Curry
36 - Joachim Noah
35 - Eric Gordon
34 - Kevin Garnett
33 - Tim Duncan
32 - Tony Parker
31 - Al Jefferson
Fri October 28: 30 - 21
30 - Ray Allen
29 - Kevin Martin
28 - Tyreke Evans
27 - Andre Iguodala
26 - Rudy Gay
25 - Danny Granger
24 - Monta Ellis
23 - Kevin Love
22 - Joe Johnson
21 - Manu Ginobili
Sat October 29: 20 - 16
20 - Zach Randolph
19 - Paul Pierce
18 - Steve Nash
17 - Chris Bosh
16 - LaMarcus Aldridge
Sun October 30: 15 - 11
15 - Rajon Rondo
14 - Pau Gasol
13 - Russell Westbrook
12 - Blake Griffin
11 - Amar'e Stoudemire
Mon October 31: 10 - 6
Tues November 1: 5 - 1
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10
Deron Williams
-       ESPN rank 9 (8.98)
-       SLAMonline rank - 10
-       CBS rank 44 (76.79)
-       2k12 ranking 9 (90)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -14.9
-       Player Efficiency Rating #20
-       Sports Illustrated #7
-       PSD Top 10 - #9
-       Eye on Basketball #16
-       360special All-Time rank - 79
-       20.1 pts, 4.0 reb, 10.3 ast, 43.9 FG%, 84.5 FT%
-       2010/11 Season 5th Most Turnovers


Deron Williams has been at the centre of the best point-guard debate for the better part of the past decade, in a see-saw battle with Chris Paul. Newly crowned MVP Derrick Rose threatens this debate, and now it's a three horse race. Deron Williams' upper hand on Chris Paul was that his leadership and size allowed him to make up for a lack of speed or athleticism. Don't get me wrong, Deron can dunk but it doesn't define his game like the dunking of Rose or the quickness of Paul. Deron is just a solid point guard, and one that will get a boost to his star power when his Nets move into Brooklyn. He already made waves this summer by being the first big NBA name to ink an overseas deal during lockout limbo, and he should continue to develop his individual game and image. Regardless of his reputation for steady play and 10.3 assists per game (more than Rose or Paul), he also had more turnovers than both of them. Deron Williams is an elite player and a competent floor leader that make him top 10 NBA talent.

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9
Carmelo Anthony
-       ESPN rank 12 (8.42)
-       SLAMonline rank - 9
-       CBS rank 11 (88.51)
-       2k12 ranking 8 (91)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -17.6
-       Player Efficiency Rating #16
-       Sports Illustrated #20
-       PSD Top 10 - #10
-       Eye on Basketball #15
-       360special All-Time rank - 56
-       25.6 pts, 7.3 reb, 2.9 ast, 45.5 FG%, 83.8 FT%
-       Net Production #9



Carmelo Anthony is an elite scorer that has always been his team's centre of attention since entering the League as LeBron's destined, and more proven rival coming off a freshman season NCAA championship at Syracuse. In 2003 LeBron was picked first, and Carmelo was picked third by the Denver Nuggets, forming a Darko death sandwich. Always a contender in Denver, the Nuggets never reached the Finals. Melo was criticised for not having a 'complete' game, and lacking determination and ability on defense. While the other three all-stars from his draft coalesced on the Heat, Melo courted the Knicks and flirted with the Nets. When the dominoes fell, Melo was in New York, ready to revive MSG as a central hub of basketball entertainment rather than a disconnected, directionless, mess of a team as they had been for the Naughts. As seen at the end of the South Beach All-Star Classic, when the game is on the line, Carmelo is one of the players you have to watch. He can obviously score well, and his 7.3 rebounds per game is more than Dirk, Durant, Wade, and Marc Gasol. He is as productive as his ranking, and his efficiency is high, but could be better. As a face of the NBA, he's just a step back from the highest tier of stardom, and that will come with proven success.
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8
Chris Paul
-       ESPN rank 4 (9.68)
-       SLAMonline rank - 8
-       CBS rank 16 (85.52)
-       2k12 rank 4 (93)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -3.8
-       Player Efficiency Rating #6
-       Sports Illustrated #6
-       PSD Top 10 - #4
-       Eye on Basketball #8
-       360special All-Time rank – 64
-       Simple Rating – 10.5 (9th)
-       15.8 pts, 4.1 reb, 9.8 ast, 46.3 FG%, 87.8 FT%
-       2010/11 Season Steals #1
-       Estimated wins added – #7 – 18.3


Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA, or at least the likeliest candidate to inherit that title. Some would argue him higher up this list due to his ability to run a team and play at a competitive level that Isiah Thomas called "a whole 'nother level." He is extremely quick, regularly leads the NBA in steals, and is usually close to assists leaders as well. This past season he dished 9.8 assists (less than Deron Williams and Steve Nash), yet scored only 15.8 points (almost ten points behind Derrick Rose). He still adds the seventh most wins, is the sixth most effective player, and had the ninth highest simple rating in an off-year for him statistically. The point guard is quickly becoming the most competitive and celebrated position in the game, as teams move to more perimeter-oriented games, and Chris Paul is arguably the best of them.
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7
Derrick Rose
-       ESPN rank 8 (9.27)
-       SLAMonline rank - 4
-       CBS rank 6 (90.51)
-       2k12 rank 6 (92)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -5.5
-       Player Efficiency Rating #9
-       Sports Illustrated #9
-       PSD Top 10 - #8
-       Eye on Basketball #5
-       360special All-Time rank - 69
-       25.0 pts, 4.1 reb, 7.7 ast, 44.5 FG%, 85.8 FT%
-       2010/11 Season 8th Most Turnovers
-       Net Production #8
-       Estimated wins added – #5 – 19.0

Derrick Rose excelled faster in his career than he does off a hard cross-over. Still under his rookie contract with the Chicago Bulls, the former #1 pick and Rookie of the Year won the MVP award in just his third season in the NBA. I had a debate over twitter with @AndrewGordonNBA about why Rose deserved MVP over LeBron, and we agreed to disagree. Rose led the Bulls to the best record in the NBA without Wade or Bosh, the Bulls would be worse off without Rose than the Heat would be without LeBron, and Rose is the heart and soul of his city. The Bulls also finished first place in the East, just ahead of the Heat, winning 62 games to Miami's 58. Some of the credit should go to new coach Tom Thibodeau for molding the Bulls into a championship team. Derrick Rose has become a bankable star in the NBA, and the league's youngest ever MVP. With his size, skill, and athleticism combined with his strength and unmatched speed, he is a new, unstoppable breed of point guard. Rose added the fifth most wins, and had high production and efficiency rankings, but was shut down by a Miami defense that made him into a shooter and took away his driving lanes. Rose is young enough to still have some weaknesses, and once he rounds out his game he'll never finish out of the top 5 in my rankings again. He's not the point guard that Paul, Williams, Rondo, or Nash are, but he's a better basketball player  than any of them right now and one of the best overall players in the NBA today.
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6
Kevin Durant
-       ESPN rank 6 (9.62)
-       SLAMonline rank - 2
-       CBS rank 2 (93.9)
-       2k12 rank 6 (92)
-       Yahoo 2011 Fantasy Draft Average Pick -1.3
-       Player Efficiency Rating #7
-       Sports Illustrated #8
-       PSD Top 10 - #7
-       Eye on Basketball #7
-       360special All-Time rank - 25
-       27.7 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.7 ast, 46.2 FG%, 88.0 FT%
-       Net Production #4
-       Estimated wins added – #4 – 19.9


The young Thunder's playoff run was an exciting preview of young talent that will be on an All-Star level for the next decade. Kevin Durant has a hall-of-fame type of talent. His long 6'9" body has a 7'5" wingspan that allows him to get shots up over any type of defender. He is quick, can handle the ball remarkably well, and has now led the league in scoring two years running. The first time KD led the league in scoring he became the youngest player to have ever completed the feat at 22 years old. His summer barnstorming tour since the onset of lockout fever have elevated his status to basketball chosen one. His 66 points at Rucker Park legitimated his credibility as a transcendant NBA talent. He's taking over the NBA, and is one of the best scorers the game has ever seen, but he's a few steps away from getting my vote for one single series impact. I'll take Kobe over KD, Dwight gets the nod because of defense, Dirk proved himself in the playoffs, Wade's talent shows up in advanced statistics, and LeBron has the size and strength that is opposite to Durant's silky smooth touch. One thing is certain, Durant can score. He also produces, and adds wins at a top-5 rate, and is the seventh most effective player according to PER. He's the highest picked player in fantasy basketball right now on Yahoo because LeBron and Wade suck up each others' stats, Kobe chills until playoffs, Dwight kills your team with free-throws, and Dirk doesn't get the stats you want out of a big man. Kevin Durant is a sublime talent and if his off-season success translated to NBA action, be sure he will dominate for years to come.


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