Preseason Predictions Revisited

Before this season started I made my predictions as to how each of the teams would finish. Looking back I can see which teams surprised me, underperformed, or maybe I predicted bang on. The actual final record is listed in blue, my preseason record prediction is listed in red, and the difference is listed after in green.

East

Chicago – 50/16... 53/13 = -3

Miami – 46/20... 56/10 = -10

Indiana – 42/24... 39/27 = +3

Atlanta – 40/26... 46/20 = -6

Boston – 39/27... 44/22 = -5

Orlando – 37/29... 41/25 = -4

New York – 36/30... 42/24 = -6

Philadelphia – 35/31... 38/28 = -3

Milwaukee – 31/35... 25/41 = +6

Detroit – 25/41... 30/36 = -5

Toronto – 23/43... 30/36 = -7

New Jersey – 22/44... 22/44 = 0

Cleveland – 21/45... 18/48 = +3

Washington – 20/46... 12/54 = +8

Charlotte – 7/59... 20/46 = -13 

West

San Antonio – 50/16... 38/28 = +12

Oklahoma City – 47/19... 51/13 = -4

LA Lakers – 41/25... 41/25 = 0

Memphis – 41/25... 38/28 = +3

LA Clippers – 40/26... 42/24 = -2

Denver – 38/28... 37/29 = +1

Dallas – 36/30... 46/20 = -10

Utah – 36/30... 33/33 = +3

Houston – 34/32... 26/40 = +8

Phoenix – 33/33... 28/38 = +5

Portland – 28/38... 44/22 = -16

Minnesota – 26/40... 26/40 = 0

Golden State – 23/43... 25/41 = -2

Sacramento – 22/44... 20/46 = +2

New Orleans – 21/45... 23/43 = -2

Five Things That Stand Out

1) Portland – 28/38... 44/22 = -16

I came into the season pretty high on the Blazers. I thought Nate McMillan was doing a great job, they had just signed Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton looked ready to break out, Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas could still produce even if Greg Oden never came back, Gerald Wallace was a key addition, LaMarcus Aldridge was going to be an all-star, and Wes Matthews and Nic Batum were the secret weapons that would secure Portland not just a playoff spot, but homecourt as well. Then the wheels fell off. Portland started the season 7-2, but faded soon after that. Felton and McMillan clashed, Wallace was dealt to New Jersey, Camby to Houston, Aldridge had a hip injury later in the year and McMillan lost his job. The 44-win season I predicted never came to fruition, and the Blazers stumbled to just 28 wins.

2) San Antonio – 50/16... 38/28 = +12

Yeah, I was one of the people who doubted the Spurs this year. I figured that last years' first round upset by the eighth-ranked Grizzlies was the final run in the Spurs decade-long dynasty. There were rumors that Tony Parker would be traded, Duncan is 36, Manu is 34, and though I figured they'd still make the playoffs, I never expected the Spurs to be sitting on top of the conference once again. Kudos to the Spurs for making the doubters wrong and for keeping on doing what they do best.

3) New Jersey– 22/44... 22/44 = 0, Minnesota– 26/40... 26/40 = 0, LA Lakers– 41/25... 41/25 = 0

My predictions matched up fairly well for the most part, with some obvious surprises and disappointments, but I nailed New Jersey, Minnesota and Los Angeles right on the head. The Nets and Wolves really could have posted better records if Deron Williams and Ricky Rubio hadn't missed significant time. The Lakers at 41 wins was just what I expected with the loss of Phil Jackson and the departure of Lamar Odom.  

4) Miami – 46/20... 56/10 = -10,  Dallas – 36/30... 46/20 = -10

Both of last years' NBA Finals participants finished with exactly ten wins less than I had anticipated. For the Heat, it was a mixture of overconfidence (56 wins, really?) and them losing some games they really should have won. I expected more of the defending champs from Dallas though. Even though they'd lost JJ Barea, Tyson Chandler, and DeShawn Stevenson, they'd picked up Vince Carter and Lamar Odom. The former sixth-man of the year Odom really crapped out, never fit in, and was eventually dismissed from the team, while it took Dirk a while to round into shape, and the Mavs stumbled right out of the gate. While the Heat are poised to make a deep playoff run from the two seed, the Mavs are in tough as the seventh seed facing the Oklahoma City Thunder- a fate they could have avoided had they just picked up a few more wins.

5) Charlotte – 7/59... 20/46 = -13

Nobody could have predicted the Bobcats would post the worst winning percentage of all time with .106, even if they had tagged them for last in the league before the season began. I thought the Wizards would do worse, but the finished the year with the 20 wins I predicted for the Bobcats after closing on a six-game win streak. The Bobcats were awful, lost their last 23 games in a row, coach Paul Silas and forward Tyrus Thomas actually fought in the locker room, Bismack Biyombo showed he was still very raw, Corey Maggette played in only 32 games, Boris Diaw left for San Antonio, Eduardo Najera fractured his forehead, and Gerald Henderson was their leading scorer. Ugly year in Charlotte.