NBA Finals Preview - Heat v Mavericks

Image; Ryan Hurst

The Mavericks have been hot and have proved themselves the best team in the West. They ousted the tough Blazers, then swept the defending champion LA Lakers, and overcame a youthful Thunder squad in the Western finals. At times, Dallas has seemed unguardable. Meanwhile the Heat plowed through the East taking out the upstart Sixers, cagey Celtics and tenacious Bulls. The Heat have also shaken their early-season reputation for choking with strong close-out wins.
      Dirk Nowitzki has had excited TV analysts and announcers proclaim that he may be one of the best of all time, top 10, best seven footer, best jump shooter, and numerous other compliments skewed by the shortsighted passion of the moment. Dirk has been unstoppable on the offensive end, and it will be up to the Heat's surprisingly cohesive defense to stifle him. This playoffs he has shot 56% from the field, but in the two games vs the Heat this season he was held to 38% shooting. LeBron is probably the best matchup as a one-on -one defender with Dirk, and a superstar showdown is always fun to watch. Look for the Heat to switch defenders on Dirk constantly applying Bosh, Haslem, Anthony, James, Dampier, and Ilgauskas whenever they are ready. Once the Heat can rattle Dirk, the Mavs will crumble. We've seen the Heat be resiliant and come back for knock-off victories against the Celtics and the Bulls, so taking them out of the game early may not rattle them. It may, however, force Wade and LeBron to try to do too much and not get their teammates involved.
     The Mavericks bench has been more than capable this offseason led by JJ Barea, Jason Terry, Peja Stojacovic and Brendan Haywood. The Heat bench has been good too, but different players have seen their stock rise and fall depending on the matchups within the series. The Mavs' bench has the confidence and consistency to provide an offensive lift to support the starters. The Mavs roster is also filled with players who can score given the chance like Tyson Chandler, Jason Kidd and Shawn Marion. The Heat's offensive attack centres around James and Wade, and to a lesser extent Chris Bosh, and if one of the "Big 3" is struggling, there is not alot of depth behind them to pick up the slack. Bosh will be an important factor if he rebounds well and defends Dirk with consistent effort.
     During the regular season the Mavs won both of the meetings between the two clubs, but both teams at the end of the playoff grind have grown-up from their regular season selves and that regular season record should have little bearing on the matchup with a Finals-level intensity. The Heat, especially D-Wade, know what is like to be under pressure and thrive. When a young Wade met Dirk and the Mavs in the Finals five years ago they went down 2-0 in the series and came back to win 4 straight games. Only Dirk and Terry, and Wade and Haslem remain from those Finals teams.
     When Oklahoma got out on the break and turned defense into offense, Dirk's transition defense was exposed as poor. The Thunder were young and inexperienced and failed  to close out games. The Heat are more athletic, have better defense, Wade and James run the break beautifully, and the Heat can close out a game. It's funny that the primary question of "Who's guarding who" centre around Dirk rather than the penultimate question "Who's going to guard LeBron?" Shawn Marion did a good job against Durant and he should get the same opportunity against James.
     It will be fun to watch if the Mavs take the Heat deep into the series, to see LeBron and Wade panic and blame their teammates (which they would). It's fun to hate the Heat, and they would end the criticism if they can put a ring on it. I kind of want them to win, just so everybody can shut up about LeBron not winning any championships. I kind of don't want them to win, because it indicates that great players are better than great teams. A team that comes together, gains mutual experience and understanding of each other and triumphs is the classic American success story, not the realigning of superstar talents, greedy players and individual identities. I don't really like either team, the Mavs for historic and personal reasons, and the Heat because, really, who does? I'm going to have to pick the Heat in 7 games, mercy on my soul.