Playoff Predictions

First round NBA playoff predictions, *upon evaluating match-ups in game 1.

Eastern Conference

(1) Chicago Bulls - CHI wins in 5 games
(8) Indiana Pacers
Chicago's a great team, but they're not a dominating one and may let one slip to the scrappy Pacers.

(2) Miami Heat - MIA sweeps in 4 games
(7) Philadelphia 76ers
Look for Miami to flex it's muscle in the first round, and sweep in the ecstasy of the honeymoon phase

(3) Boston Celtics - BOS wins in 6 games
(6) New York Knicks
Boston is going to have to play tough and gritty, which is their game. I'd be surprised if NY keeps up this pressure, but Amare has the potential to be a playoff beast. We saw Boston's experience and clutch in game one and it has a defining factor in this series. The Celtics have been together longer, the Knicks need more time to gel.

(4) Orlando Magic - ORL wins in 7 games
(5) Atlanta Hawks
This is an odd rivalry, these teams always match up in the playoffs. Dwight has been dominant, but the Magic have yet to find a consistent second option on offense. This may take seven games, but Dwight can shoulder the Magic into the second round.


Western Conference
(1) San Antonio Spurs - SAS wins in 7 games
(8) Memphis Grizzlies 
The Grizzlies are better than people think, and will put up a fight against the Spurs. The Spurs don't dominate anybody but always prove to be the better team in the end., so look for them to subtly eliminate the Grizzlies, provided Ginobili returns in good health and the rest of the Spurs stay healthy.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers - LAL wins in 6 games
(7) New Orleans Hornets
The Lakers will learn from the game one scare and come back strong. Phil Jackson will probably mould it into a learning experience for his squad on their path to championship glory, it just makes a better story anyways.

(3) Dallas Mavericks - DAL sweeps in 4 games
(6) Portland Trail Blazers
Dallas has the firepower, the Blazers have too many question marks. The sweep will screw up Dallas the rest of the playoffs and they will play the Lakers next...

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder - OKC wins in 7 games
(5) Denver Nuggets
An exciting and unpredictable series. I just think Oklahoma is a little more solid throughout its lineup and Denver doesn't have the starpower that a closer like Kevin Durant and a secong option like Russel Westbrook provides down the stretch in the playoffs.

My WESTERN Conference predictions revisited

WEST

Formula*

Team Name – Predicted games won - Actual games won = + or – from expected total

San Antonio – 54 – 61 = +7

LA Lakers –   66 – 57 = -9

Dallas –          62 – 57 = -5

Oklahoma –   56 – 55 = -1

Denver –        50 – 50 = 0

Portland –       47 – 48 = +1

New Orleans – 46 – 46 = 0

Memphis –     44 – 46 = +2

Houston –      48 – 43 = -5

Phoenix –       50 – 40 = -10

Utah –             55 – 39 = -16

Golden State – 44 – 36 = -8

LA Clippers – 46 – 32 = -14

Sacramento –  42 – 24 = -18

Minnesota –    23 – 17 = -6

My Deviation, and why

Denver – 0            Of all predictions this one is most baffling that I got right.

New Orleans -0     Chris Paul’s return was a spark, not quite 50 though.

Oklahoma -1             Durant didn’t translate his Gold success, but Russ stepped up

Portland +1              Consider that extra game a flukey Batum

Memphis +2            Solid, under the radar, in the playoffs. A surprise.

Dallas -5            Injuries to Caron Butler overcome by a deep bench

Houston -5            Yao’s fragility was supposed in my prediction, but out so soon?

Minnesota -6            It looked like Beas would break out, but worst record overall?

San Antonio +7       Would have been even higher if not for late-season slide

Golden State -8          Lee was solid, Curry wasn’t consistent, Monta underappreciated

LA Lakers -9            A ‘weird’ team that would go through highs and lows

Phoenix -10            50 wins has been standard for the Suns, but they’re clearly downtrending

LA Clippers -14          Gordon’s injury hurt, shouldn’t have traded Baron. Blake=savior

Utah -16             Blown up hard. First Sloan, then D-Will. Rebuild time

Sacramento -18        Honestly it was a bonehead move to predict the Kings winning 42 games and finishing above .500, but I’m just so sold on Tyreke Evans. Fransisco Garcia is a player that always disappears, but I figured Tyreke would make up for it. Tyreke had an injury-riddled season, but did sink the season’s  best shot. Dalembert and Cousins were a promising frontcourt duo, but I’ve heard negative things about their attitudes, unfortunately. Now the Kings look poised to relocate, and the future of basketball in Sac-town looks bleak. 

*All predictions based on my own expectations as of October 26, 2010

Regular season final standings link

Western Conference Depth Charts - All Players of All WEST teams

My EASTERN Conference predictions revisited

EAST

Formula*

Team Name – Predicted games won - Actual games won = + or – from expected total

Chicago –   54 – 62 = +8

Miami –      70 – 58 = -12

Boston –     56 – 56 = 0

Orlando –    61 – 52 = -9

Atlanta –     48 – 44 = -4

New York – 41 – 42 = +1

Philadelphia – 40 – 41 = +1

Indiana –      37 – 37 = 0

Milwaukee – 55 – 35 = -20

Charlotte –   43 – 34 = -9

Detroit –       40 – 30 = -10

New Jersey – 39 – 24 = -15

Washington – 35 – 23 = -12

Toronto –       27 – 22 = -5

Cleveland –   30 – 19 = -11

My Deviation, and why

Boston – 0            I knew they would have a good record, not quite 60 wins

Indiana – 0            Figured they’d be middle of the pack, didn’t see them in the playoffs

New York +1             The addition of Carmelo helped and also hindered, a net even

Philadelphia +1     They hit .500, just about what I thought

Atlanta -4            Lost a few more close games than I thought they would

Toronto -5            Injuries robbed the Raps, they could have had 27 wins easy

Chicago +8            Better than I, and most, expected. Rose emerges as MVP?

Orlando -9            The trade shook things up, in a weird way. Gilbert?

Charlotte -9            Lost some ground, miss playoffs, lose Gerald Wallace and Felton

Detroit -10            Didn’t gel if they had they may be ten games better

Cleveland -11            Extected them to be bad, but that 26 game losing streak hurt

Miami -12               70 was a bit high, didn’t match last years’ Cavs record

Washington -12             Injuries, laziness, and Gilbert robbed this promising young team

New Jersey -15            The Melo-drama went way too long

Milwaukee -20            I expected big things from this Milwaukee club this year, they are my biggest letdown, losing twenty full games less than I expected. Jennings didn’t reach that next level, Bogut was limited in his return and the wing group of Salmons, Maggette, Gooden, Mbah a Moute, and Carlos Delfino underperformed. Michael Redd missed the season. Fear the deer no more, but maybe next year.

*All predictions based on my own expectations as of October 26, 2010

Eastern Conference Depth Charts link

Final regular season standings link

Raptors Full and Final Schedule

This has been firmly tacked to the side of my desk for the past six months. Updated day after day in agony. Relive the Raptors greatest moments; the four-game win streak in September, the only back-to-back wins of the new year on March 18th and 20th, and breaking the thirteen-game losing streak on February 4th. It's all here in lived detail, may not be for the feint of heart.

Raptors Coverage: April 13, Miami

Game 82 – Miami (L 97-79 / final record 22-60 / streak L2) Wednesday April 13, 2011

Watched the whole game

With the Raptors still resting much of their weary squad, and the Heat already booking a date for playoff action against Philadelphia Saturday at 3:30, this denouement was the anti-climax of a long season. The Heat’s big three all rested, so T.O. fans had little opportunity to boo Bosh. A loss ensured the Raps a top-3 lottery pick in the draft lottery. 

Eddie House did the damage for the Heat on offense with 35 points including 14 in the first quarter, taking advantage of the young Raps who just wanted this to be over. Jamaal Magloire, the veteran Toronto faithful, hauled in a career-high 19 rebounds. Close until the fourth quarter, Miami’s bench of veterans overcame Toronto’s undermanned youth squad and held them to just 19% FG in the fourth quarter. The Raptors used to be an excellent shooting team, but the degradation of their distance ability has been evident this season as they lost their consecutive team three-pointer record and in this game are outshot 13-1 from downtown. The Raps also fall far short of the 100-point plateau that fans are accustomed to, partly because of injuries to key scorers, but also partly because of an increasingly stagnant offense. 

DeMar had 18 on 8-20 shooting, while Bayless had a Raps high 21 points, but a sloppy 5 turnovers to 4 assists ratio. There is much uncertainty this offseason with the new collective bargaining agreement, GM Colangelo and Coach Triano are up for contract renewal, but the Raps are in excellent position with a young core, tradable assets, salary cap flexibility and a high draft pick. 

It’s been an interesting ride documenting the season. I have never immersed myself in a team the way I did with the Raps this year and the experience has been invaluable. I have seen my own style be redefined by necessity and develop and adapt just like the Raptors did this year. I witnessed the growth of DeMar DeRozan into a solid NBA player, the rise and fall of Sonny Weems, I’ve seen players come and go, get injured and return, I’ve witnessed the defensive nightmare that Calderon and Bargnani pose as a starting PG-C combo, yet also witnessed the passion of Reggie Evans, and the ebb and flow of Toronto professional basketball culture and I have rode with it all. I’d like to extend a thank-you to the Raptors players, staff and all the other fans out there for this season, stay faithful, and we’ll rip it up next year.

NBA.com gamelink

Dunkus Interruptis

Hold everything folks, this Dunk just shattered the time-space continuum long enough for you to drop whatever you're doing and watch this unbelievable, league-rattling oop from the Beast,  Dwight Howard. On this play Jameer Nelson lobs the toss up behind the Sixers' Spencer Hawes, leaving Jrue Holiday jumping and not looking. Dwight ascends skyward and powers the ball through the hoop while bodying Jrue posterizingly out of the way. Dwight, in the process, leaves the Wells Fargo Center crowd in a state of shock. "Should we cheer? should we boo? should we go home right now?" Poor Jrue, the Sixers have had a great season and he's been solid, but people will remember this for a long time. Hide the women and children indeed.

"Somebody should have warned him about this Dwight Howard guy"

Raptors Coverage: April 11, @ Milwaukee

Game 81 - @ Milwaukee (L 93-86 / record 22-59 / streak L1) Monday April 11, 2011

Watched the first half

This was a close game a fun game to watch. For two teams that have rosters full of promise, the playoffs are a pipe dream for next year. On this night it was all about growth, understanding, learning, and earning maybe one last win of the year. Unfortunately for the Raptors, they came up short in the fourth quarter. Ultimately this loss may reward them, as a loss to Miami in the final game of the season on Wednesday night would ensure them the 3^rd best chance at the highest pick in this June’s draft lottery, and secure top-5 draft position. Even Reggie sat this one out, with Joey Dorsey starting in his place and he did the unexpected with 10 points and 20 rebounds, including 10 offensive boards. Bayless had 20 points, 5 assists and DeMar finished with 17. Salmons and Jennings went for 24 and 21 points respectively for the Bucks, who finish 9^th in the Eastern Conference. Look for an exciting game against Miami on Wednesday and Toronto hosts the Heat. The Heat already locked up the #2 spot in the East, and may not play their stars. Games Remaining Countdown: 1 
NBA.com gamelink