It can never be anywhere close to an exact science to form a mock draft and try to predict how each team subjectively views a diverse range of prospects. Some will try to fill a positional need while others will draft the best talent available, but it all depends on who picks before them and sends the dominoes toppling. Recent social media advances have allowed us to glean tips and insider info from those close to "league sources," though more often than not it often forms a cloud of undecipherable information that leads to nothing. Anyways, us NBA "experts" try to figure it all out and inevitably end up getting no more than 10 or 11 of 30 correct, but if I talk the talk and walk the walk, I've got to mock the mock. Here's my best shot.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Nerlens Noel (GM likes him, best talent available)
2. Orlando Magic - Ben McLemore (seek wing talent and arguably best talent available)
3. Washington Wizards - Otto Porter (fills SF position, NBA-ready, home bias)
4. Charlotte Bobcats - Anthony Bennett (adds talent, scoring to defensive frontcourt)
5. Phoenix Suns - Victor Oladipo (need a sure pick, solid defense)
6. New Orleans Pelicans - Alex Len (some think top pick, allows Davis to play PF)
7. Sacramento Kings - Trey Burke (PG of future, scoring upside)
8. Detroit Pistons - Shabazz Muhammad (scoring, creating offense, upside)
9. Minnesota Timberwolves - CJ McCollum (backcourt rotation, next Lillard)
10. Portland TrailBlazers - Cody Zeller (solidify frontcourt rotation, NBA-ready)
11. Philadelphia 76ers - Lucas Nogueira (fills gap at C, intriguing prospect)
12. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kelly Olynyk (frontcourt depth, big shooter, stretch floor)
13. Dallas Mavericks - Michael Carter-Williams (backcourt distributor with size)
14. Utah Jazz - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (wing boost to compliment frontcourt depth)
15. Milwaukee Bucks - Sergey Karasev (move up to draft? Russian Olympian, skilled)
16. Boston Celtics - Steven Adams (best big man prospect on the board)
17. Atlanta Hawks - Allen Crabbe (scorer with size and range)
18. Atlanta Hawks - Gorgui Dieng (underrated big man known for D, underrated scorer)
19. Cleveland Cavaliers - Isaiah Canaan (NBA ready and respected, PG depth)
20. Chicago Bulls - Glen Rice Jr (earned way through D-League, wing scoring/depth)
21. Utah Jazz - Jeff Withey (frontcourt insurance and rim protection)
22. Brooklyn Nets - Rudy Gobert (french big brings length and defence)
23. Indiana Pacers - Dennis Schroeder (german PG to back up Hill, distribute and drive)
24. New York Knicks - Tony Mitchell (best raw talent on the board, frontcourt depth)
25. Los Angeles Clippers - Reggie Bullock (backcourt shooting, scoring insurance)
26. Minnesota Timberwolves - Tim Hardaway Jr (scorer with pedigree, replace BRoy)
27. Denver Nuggets - Mason Plumlee (solid skills add frontcourt depth)
28. San Antonio Spurs - Ricky Ledo (unknown prospect for Spurs to mold, lots of talent)
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - Shane Larkin (point guard depth, shooting)
30. Phoenix Suns - Giannis Adetokoubo (highest upside left, still 18, multi-positions)
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Monday, June 24, 2013
NBA 2012-13 Preseason Predictions Revisited
This is the time of year when I look back at my predictions and think of how very wrong I was on many things and "I called it!" on many others. The game always surprises me. Without further ado, here is the list of my predicted team records and actual records starting where I went...
The Most Wrong.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
Houston Rockets - 27 45 +18
Minnesota TWolves - 45 31 -14
Boston Celtics - 53 41 -12
Phoenix Suns - 35 25 -10
Los Angeles Lakers - 54 45 -9
Denver Nuggets - 48 57 +9
Memphis Grizzlies - 47 56 +9
G-State Warriors - 38 47 +9
Los Angeles Clippers - 48 56 +8
Toronto Raptors - 42 34 -8
At the time of this prediction the Rockets hadn't acquired James Harden yet and the roster seemed to be overwrought with random characters, an overpaid Lin, and no real identity. Somehow, they moneyballed themselves into a legit playoff contender with Harden in tow and were the surprise of the season.
Injuries to Kevin Love and Rajon Rondo derailed teams that were on the edge already, while Phoenix underwhelmed considerably. The Lakers were THE story all season long and fell short of predictions which isn't too crazy when you see how much the Nugs, Griz, Warriors and Clippers exceeded expectations. And the Raptors? sigh...
Medium Predictions.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
New York Knicks - 47 54 +7
Philadelphia 76ers - 40 34 -6
Cleveland Cavaliers - 30 24 -6
Brooklyn Nets - 44 49 +5
San Antonio Spurs - 53 58 +5
Washington Wizards - 33 29 -4
Detroit Pistons - 33 29 -4
Milwaukee Bucks - 35 38 +3
New Orleans Hornets - 24 27 +3
The Knicks won more games than expected even though some of their vets spent the season on crutches, as the Nets heated up the rivalry. The Sixers were a tough pick with the unknown health of Andrew Bynum but came out worse for the distraction. Strangely, I picked the Wizards and Pistons to have identical records and it came true! And the Spurs winning 50-some games could have been predicted by a monkey.
Well Predicted, sir.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
OKC Thunder - 62 60 -2
Utah Jazz - 45 43 -2
Dallas Mavericks - 43 41 -2
Portland Trailblazers - 35 33 -2
Charlotte Bobcats - 19 21 +2
Orlando Magic - 18 20 +2
Miami Heat - 65 66 +1
Indiana Pacers - 50 49 -1
Atlanta Hawks - 43 44 +1
Sacramento Kings - 29 28 -1
Chicago Bulls - 45 45 0
When a team comes within two total wins of my preseason prediction, I know I did pretty well. For all the unknowns and ups and downs, I either got really lucky with these or I really know my basketball. Sometimes you need both.
The Thunder traded away Harden and still won 60 games, though it hurt them in the playoffs when they lost Russ and KD had to do it all. But all of that is fairly predictable. Mavs, Jazz, and Blazers missed the playoffs in the tight West as expected. I figured the Magic would win one fewer game than Charlotte for the title of worst team in the league and got that one right! Miami winning mid-60s games was a given, but the Pacers were an underrated team I had pegged as a 50-win squad that didn't show people until the playoffs. The Hawks and Kings were painfully predictable, while the Bulls were probably the biggest pre-season wildcard and I nailed it exactly...
The Most Wrong.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
Houston Rockets - 27 45 +18
Minnesota TWolves - 45 31 -14
Boston Celtics - 53 41 -12
Phoenix Suns - 35 25 -10
Los Angeles Lakers - 54 45 -9
Denver Nuggets - 48 57 +9
Memphis Grizzlies - 47 56 +9
G-State Warriors - 38 47 +9
Los Angeles Clippers - 48 56 +8
Toronto Raptors - 42 34 -8
At the time of this prediction the Rockets hadn't acquired James Harden yet and the roster seemed to be overwrought with random characters, an overpaid Lin, and no real identity. Somehow, they moneyballed themselves into a legit playoff contender with Harden in tow and were the surprise of the season.
Injuries to Kevin Love and Rajon Rondo derailed teams that were on the edge already, while Phoenix underwhelmed considerably. The Lakers were THE story all season long and fell short of predictions which isn't too crazy when you see how much the Nugs, Griz, Warriors and Clippers exceeded expectations. And the Raptors? sigh...
Medium Predictions.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
New York Knicks - 47 54 +7
Philadelphia 76ers - 40 34 -6
Cleveland Cavaliers - 30 24 -6
Brooklyn Nets - 44 49 +5
San Antonio Spurs - 53 58 +5
Washington Wizards - 33 29 -4
Detroit Pistons - 33 29 -4
Milwaukee Bucks - 35 38 +3
New Orleans Hornets - 24 27 +3
The Knicks won more games than expected even though some of their vets spent the season on crutches, as the Nets heated up the rivalry. The Sixers were a tough pick with the unknown health of Andrew Bynum but came out worse for the distraction. Strangely, I picked the Wizards and Pistons to have identical records and it came true! And the Spurs winning 50-some games could have been predicted by a monkey.
Well Predicted, sir.
TEAM Predicted wins Actual Wins Variation
OKC Thunder - 62 60 -2
Utah Jazz - 45 43 -2
Dallas Mavericks - 43 41 -2
Portland Trailblazers - 35 33 -2
Charlotte Bobcats - 19 21 +2
Orlando Magic - 18 20 +2
Miami Heat - 65 66 +1
Indiana Pacers - 50 49 -1
Atlanta Hawks - 43 44 +1
Sacramento Kings - 29 28 -1
Chicago Bulls - 45 45 0
When a team comes within two total wins of my preseason prediction, I know I did pretty well. For all the unknowns and ups and downs, I either got really lucky with these or I really know my basketball. Sometimes you need both.
The Thunder traded away Harden and still won 60 games, though it hurt them in the playoffs when they lost Russ and KD had to do it all. But all of that is fairly predictable. Mavs, Jazz, and Blazers missed the playoffs in the tight West as expected. I figured the Magic would win one fewer game than Charlotte for the title of worst team in the league and got that one right! Miami winning mid-60s games was a given, but the Pacers were an underrated team I had pegged as a 50-win squad that didn't show people until the playoffs. The Hawks and Kings were painfully predictable, while the Bulls were probably the biggest pre-season wildcard and I nailed it exactly...
AWARDS
(prediction in italics, actual in bold)
MVP - LeBron James, LeBron James
Finals MVP - LeBron James (Heat over Lakers in Six), LeBron James (Heat > Spurs 7)
Yeah, I called LeBron having another great year and wrapping up another MVP/title, but who wouldn't have? It was the safe bet (other than the Lakers in the Finals...)
Scoring Champ - Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony
Probably the only guy that could even possibly challenge LeBron for MVP for the next five years, unless they drunkenly give it to Chris Paul, KD was just .littlebit away from taking his fourth consecutive scoring title. Should that have earned Melo one MVP vote? Probs not.
DPOY - Dwight Howard, Marc Gasol
Some scratched their heads at the selection of Gasol, but he's such a smart team defender and reads plays so well he helped Memphis develop into an elite defensive team without being an incredible rebounder or shotblocker. It's not always about stats and appearances, plus the Dwightmare never seems to end...
Rookie - Anthony Davis, Damian Lillard
Davis played pretty well when he played but wasn't always in the best of health. It was hard for him to get going when he was constantly dinged up, and even if healthy it would have still been Damian Lillard. He made a rookie-record 185 threes and was voted ROY unanimously for only the fourth time in NBA history.
Sixth Man - Jason Terry, JR Smith
As part of the failed retooling in Boston this year I expected Terry, tattoo and all, to make a huge contribution to the last-chance Celts. But he played poorly and wasn't even in the race which came down to Jamal Crawford and JR Smith, none of which I'd want to trust my team with.
Most Improved - East, Jeff Green/ West, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
When Granger went out it became Paul George's team and he stepped up in a big way that I didn't foresee. Sure Jeff Green showed flashes and seems poised to inherit the Celtics, and Kawhi Leonard can post 19 points, 16 rebounds in a Finals game 7 while giving LeBron fits on defense, but they only started to show this late in the season. I might keep these picks for next year.
Bust Potential - East, Andrew Bynum/ West, Jeremy Lin, Andrew Bynum
I know it's sometimes not okay to pick on the injured guy or call him a bust, but with Bynum it became a circus. It drove Doug Collins out of the coaching business, and tanked a team that gave up Iguodala to get it done. Plus there was the bowling scandal and the ridiculous hair.
Coach - Frank Vogel, George Karl
Vogel's genius wasn't realized until he almost toppled the Heat with the underdog Pacers. Menawhile Karl gets they COY award and promptly gets fired. Coaches in the NBA have such a short lifespan that Spo will be second only to Pop if Doc is indeed leaving for LA. Spo hasn't been coaching for that long...
Highlight OTY - Blake Griffin dunk, DeAndre Jordan dunk
The Ray Allen three to save the Heat's season in Finals Game 6 was the play of the year, but in terms of sheer highlight it was the other half of Lob City that supplied the jam. DeAndre Jordan's dunk on Brandon Knight had power, height and posterization, plus it was off a lob. Sorry Blake, you'll have to do better next year.
All-NBA First Team - Paul, Rondo, James, Durant, Howard
/ Paul, Bryant, James, Durant, Duncan
All-NBA Second Team - Westbrook, Bryant, Anthony, Griffin, Love
/ Parker, Westbrook, Anthony, Griffin, Marc
All-NBA Third Team - Parker, Williams, Wade, Bosh, Pau
/ Harden, Wade, Lee, George, Howard
The Rondo injury opened up a spot on the first team that Kobe was hero enough to take, while Duncan had a renaissance year that I didn't see coming and made first team as well. Howard's terrible year still netted him a third team selection. Marc Gasol was a surprising addition to the list but he played well enough for it, while Lee's election is questionable. Griffin is overrated on the second team but takes the spot that may have belonged to KLove. Harden deserved more than third team, but not over the other guards on this list.
All-Rookie - Lillard, Beal, Kidd-Gilchrist, Davis, Valanciunas
/ Lillard, Beal, Barnes, Waiters, Davis
Lillard and Beal anded up where they belonged and Davis earned this spot as well. Big V had a terrific rookie year in Toronto but missed some time with injury and will develop more in the coming years. MKG was decent but Barnes provided a real punch for the playoff-Warriors and Waiters at his best looked like a young DWade.
Seeya Next Season!
Saturday, June 1, 2013
The Backboard of Turin
This is my backboard.
My backboard sits at the bottom of the boulevard between driveways, at the bottom of the hill.
Here I've practiced and played freely on the street on this net for nearly my whole life.
And only recently did a friend of mine point out the face looking back at me.
Look again at the pattern formed by the chips in the white backboard and see the left eye and brow of somebody looking at you. Then follow the path of the bridge down the nose to tight lips. Say that line above his head is his classic naval officer's hat. And I swear you can imagine a face on my backboard.
My own "man on the moon," my own Shroud of Turin it's a classic example of Archeiropoieta (icons made without hands). So see what you will or tell me I'm crazy, but have fun.
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